CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1
THE BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
The consequences of population growth on
the economic development of less developed countries are not the same because
the condition prevailing in these countries are quite different from those of
developed economy. Therefore the body of literature on population growth in
Nigeria has always emphasized either the negative or the positive effect.
Therefore in every discussion, it is
conventional to start with a definition of terms used in such discussion.
However, population can be seen by a demographer as a change in the size of the
population. But when this change occurs in such a way that it reduces the size
of population, the demographer refers it as a negative growth but when it adds
to the size of population he regards it as a positive one. What we get from
this concept is that population growth can be positive or negative depending on
whether there is an increase or decrease in the size of a given population. Population
whether positive or negative is derived from three demographic variables such
as birth, death and migration rates
Udabah (1999:62)
Threw more light on this by adding that birth and death rates in underdeveloped
country are quite different from that of developed countries. Births rate in
underdeveloped are generally highly why those of developed countries are low.
On the other hand, death rates are higher in underdeveloped nations. The higher
rate of population growth is therefore a major characteristic of underdeveloped
nations and is partly responsible for the low rates of economic development.
Moreover,
the population of any country constitutes the most vital component of its
resource base. This aspect is based mostly on its size, growth rate, spatial
distribution, demographic structure and quality in terms of level of education,
fitness and social welfare. Population statistics are indispensable impute into
the planning process in any area. To government issuing programmes for instance
in the efforts of government in the developing countries to feed the people and
also provide quality services for them are being frustrated by rapid population
growth. This growth is attributable on the one hand to improvement in human
survival associated with the application of modern medical science to health
matters, better sanitation and immunization of children which have caused the
death rate to decrease.
On the other hand, so many socio-cultural
issues have complimented the growth of population in Nigeria positively (Lee
and Miler 1990, Rennne 1995, Ainsword et al 1996).
Consequently, the world population has been
increasing and the last two decades have been demographically unprecedented as
it rose from 4.2 billion people in 1985 to 6.4 billion in 2006. Much of this
occurred in the developing nations as their population grew from 3.7 billion to
5.1 billion as against that of developed nation which grew from 1.1 billion to
1.2 billion over the same period (United Nation 2001 billion).
Nigerian’s population is one of the
fastest growing population in the world and Nigeria is the most populous country
in Africa, ranked the tenths as obtained from two major sources, viz the 1991
census and the Population Reference Bureau World Population Data Sheet.
Obviously,
the population of Nigeria is large which makes it a “giant” relative to the
other Africa countries. The large population of Nigeria implies a large market
for goods and services as well as large pool of human resources for
development. However, the impact of population on development depends not only
on the absolute size but also on its quality. The major function responsible
for the rapid increase in the population of the country is the relatively high
fertility level as portrayed by a total fertility rate of about 6.0 life - birth
per woman in the 1990’s
Having seen from
theoretical and empirical view that the population growth is an impediment to
the economic growth and development especially under developing countries. It
is then important to answer this question, how detrimental is population growth
to the economic growth? To answer these we look into the interactions between
population growth and any of the economic variable such as , population growth,
unemployment, savings ,interest, and inflation etc. So in this research work,
our demonstration of the impact of population on economic growth will be based
on the study of the relationship between population growth, interest,
unemployment and inflation. Now the question to answer becomes how those population
growth influences unemployment? Since we are working on the impact of
population growth on Nigeria, as whose population according the 2006 census was
estimated to be at a growth rate of 3%, our limitation of this study would be
on the Nigeria GDP (Gross Domestic Product) or GNI (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT)
versus the population growth rate of Nigeria.
Nevertheless, economic growth is the GDP OR
GNI divided by the total population of the whole country. This measure the
level of output in the economy. This equation implies that if population is
rapidly growing, the economic growth will reduce marginally and people income
will also decrease. So according to the finding, GDP can be improved that is GDP per capital by
checking the population growth rate through control birth, death rate,
migration and some other demographic variables and economic variables.
1.1
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Fundamentally, growth is an
indispensible requisite for the development that is why Nigeria’s economic growth had continue to dominate the
main thrust of government paramount objective more importantly, growth is
associated with policies of control population growth because a high population
lead to a vicious depletion of a nation’s financial and material resources.
According to CBN (1997) the population growth rate of Nigeria is at an average
of 2.83% from 1993 to 1997 as compared to developed country like United States
whose population rate is 1.00% on the average. This rapid population growth has
efficiently induce wide spread poverty. According to Chege (1992), Nigeria
become worst than the early post-colonial period. In the 1980’s the
agricultural sector declined in productivity by 1.3% while population grew by
3.1% thus creating severe food shortage, a fall in capital income, a fall in savings and living
standard . Because of this type of situation economic growth been severely
retarded and dwarfed.
The above presentation points to the
critical stance of the economy and therefore makes a clarion call for adequate
measure to control the growth rate of Nigeria’s population which is at 2.8%per
annum. To check this, we require constructive demographic policy approaches
that will seriously enlighten citizens of the eminent socio-economic danger of rapid
population growth.
1.3
OBJECTIVE
OF THE STUDY
1 To find out the
relationship between population growth and
economic
growth.
2. To
examine the impact of population growth on economic growth.
3. To proffer appropriate solution /
recommendation to authority in
charge of managing the economy on how to remedy the situation population growth.
1.4
STATEMENT OF THE HYPOTHESIS
The hypothesis to be used is
stated thus:
H0:= The impact of population
growth on Nigerian economy is not significant.
H1:= The impact of population
growth on Nigerian economy is significant.
H0:= There is no casual
relationship between population growth and economic growth.
H1:= There is casual relationship
between population and economic growth.
1.5
SIGNIFICANT OF THE STUDY
1 It
provides information on population trends and their implication
to the policy
makers, educators, the media and the concern public
servant.
2 To
ascertain the truthfulness whether population growth impact
negative or positively to the economic development. 3 This study will also serve as a
reference research work for the
society further studies
1.6 SCOPE
OF THE STUDY
This research is macroeconomic in nature and over the trend
of population growth rate and economic growth rate in Nigeria from 1980 to 2006
a period of 27 years. The study also focuses on the effects of population
growth on economic growth in Nigeria in a bid to analyze the options available
to accelerate economic development,
taking into cognizance of the fact that other factors outside the sphere of
population are also important in the determination of the face of economic
growth.
1.7
LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
The utility of this
research work is restricted to the exclusive focus on population size and
growth.