CHAPTER ONE
BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
1.1
Introduction
Climate change is one of the greatest
contemporary environmental challenges and is global in dimension. The rising incidences of extreme climatic
events associated with climate change are giving the greatest of the concerns.
Even for skeptics, events such as
prolonged dry seasons, long rainfall durations and excessively long Harmattan
periods are worrying. More and more
people are getting to ask about what can be done to minimize the impact of the
change.
Climate
change is a long term shift in the climatic patterns of a specific place or
region measured by changes in the behaviour of climate elements such as
temperature, wind patterns and precipitation resulting in changes in ecosystems
and socioeconomic activities. Such changes bring about uncertainties in the
sustainability of agriculture and agro-allied ventures (Urama and Ozor, 2011).
Climate change is seen as the most serious environmental threat facing farmers
today. It is known that as the planet earth warms, rainfall patterns shift and
extreme events such as drought, flood or forest fires become more frequent
(Zoellick, 2009). This has resulted in poor and unpredictable yields from
agriculture and agro-allied activities (UNFCCC, 2007). The impact of climate
change is more pronounced in climes that agriculture still remains the main
source of livelihood as in developing countries like Nigeria (Agwu et. al.,
2010). Paradoxically, agriculture is considered both culprit and victim of
climate change. Culprit in the sense that Green House Gas (GHG) emissions from
food and the agriculture sector account for over one-third of the current
annual total emissions; the livestock sector accounts for about 18% of global
green house gas emissions, deforestation also accounts for 18% of carbon
dioxide emissions. The world’s 130 million ha of rice paddies are estimated to
produce 50 to 100 million metric tonnes of methane annually (Shrotriya and
Prakash, 2011). Human activities involving deforestation and other activities
that alter the equilibrium of the ecosystem like mining, road construction,
housing development activities reduce the natural sinks that withdraw green
house gas from circulation. A balance between sources and sinks of green house
gases determines the level of extreme weather events occurrence (Khanal, 2009).
In Africa, climatic change is expected to, and in some parts, it has already
begun to, alter the dynamics of droughts, rainfall and heat waves, and trigger
secondary stresses such as the spread of pests, increased competition for
resources, and attendant biodiversity losses (Enete and Amusa, 2010). Rapid
changes in the behaviour of climate elements are expected to undermine the
systems that provide for food security in Africa (Gregory et al., 2005). Whilst
farmers in some regions may benefit from longer growing seasons and higher
yields, the general consequences for Africa (Mendelsohn et al., 2000) are
expected to be adverse, and particularly more adverse for the poor and
marginalized farm households, who do not have the means to withstand drastic changes.
Evidence from the IPCC suggests that areas south of the Sahara are likely to
emerge as the most vulnerable to climate change with likely agricultural losses
ranging from 2 to 7%. A Nigerian study applied the Erosion Productivity Impact
Calculator (EPIC) crop model to give projections of crop yield during the 21st
century. The study modelled worst case climate change scenarios for maize,
sorghum, rice, millet and cassava (Adejuwon, 2006). The indications from the
projections are that in general there will be increases in crop yield across
all low land ecological zones as the climate changes during the early parts of
the 21st century. However, towards the end of the century, the rate of
increases will tend to slow down. This could result in lower yields in the last
quarter than in the third quarter of the century. The decreases in yield could
be explained in terms of the very high temperatures which lie beyond the range
of tolerance for the current crop varieties and cultivars. Another study
carried out in Egypt compared crop production under current climate conditions
with those projected for 2050 and forecast a decrease in national production of
many crops, ranging from -11% for rice to -28% for soybeans (Eid et al., 2006).
Other potential impacts linked to agriculture include erosion that could be
exacerbated by expected increased intensity of rainfall and the crop growth
period that is expected to be reduced in some areas (Agoumi, 2003). Changes are
also expected in the onset of the rainy season and the variability of dry
spells (Peason, 2007). Thornton et al. (2006) mapped climate variability with a
focus on the livestock sector. The areas they identified as being particularly
prone to climate change impacts included arid-semiarid rangeland and the drier
mixed agro-ecological zones across the continent, particularly Southern Africa
and the Sahel, and coastal systems in East Africa. An important point they
raise is that macro-level analyses can hide local variability around often
complex responses to climate change. It is projected that crop yield in Africa
may fall by 10-20% by 2050 or even up to 50% due to climate change (Jones and
Thornton, 2003). This has dire consequences for Africa in view of the World
Bank’s projection that food demand will double by 2030 (Birchall, 2008).
Nigeria is an agrarian nation and despite the oil boom agriculture remains a
core economic activity that provides food for the nation. Agriculture will
still remain in the foreseeable future, the linchpin of the economy and the primary
source of ensuring national food security. Hence any threat to its optimal
productivity need to be handled with all amount of seriousness (Adejuwon,
2006). Fundamentally, the location, size and characteristic relief of Nigeria
give rise to a variety of climates ranging from tropical rainforest climate
along the coast to the Sahel climate in the Northern part of the country, each
being different in its annual precipitation, sunshine and other climate
elements (Adejuwom, 2004). In spite of this Nigeria is yet to put in place an
agency that would negotiate and co-ordinate the nation’s climate change
activities (Agwu, et al., 2011). Farmers in trying to come to terms with
climate change have developed strategies for adaptation and mitigation of its
effects. Some of these measures include cover cropping, early planting, prompt
weeding, regulated use of agro-chemicals and use of tolerant varieties (DelPHE,
2010). However, reports from the field indicate that previous adaptive measures
used by farmers become rapidly obsolete and ineffective due to the pace at
which adverse climate events take place (Enete et al., 2011). Action Aid (2008)
reports that farmers in the Southeastern part of Nigeria have continued to
complain of reduction in farm output arising from the uncertainty of rainfall
patterns, increased erosion resulting from heavy down pour which simultaneously
destroy the fertility and at times washing away of plants and human
settlements. The unfortunate aspect of the climate change dilemma in Nigeria is
that most of the farmers do not understand or appreciate their contributions to
climate change devastations. This is more so among rural farmers who still
engage in traditional forms of slash and burn system of farming (Agwu et al.,
2011). Evidence abounds in climate change literature that farmers are aware
that the climate has changed and that this change has affected negatively their
output (Enete et al., 2011) but what they do not seem to appreciate is how
their farming activities drive climate change.
The Inter-government Panel on climate change (IPPC, 2007) defined
climate change as statistically significant variations in climate that persist
for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It includes shifts in the
frequency and magnitude of sporadic weather events as well as the slow
continuous rise in global mean surface temperature.
Climate change is a change in climate
that is attributable directly or indirectly to human activities. It affects the
atmospheric conditions of the earth thereby leading to global warming.
According to Raymond and Victoria (2008), climate change has the potential to
affect all natural systems thereby becoming a threat to human development and
survival socially, politically and economically. Interest in this issue has
motivated a substantial body of research on climate cha- nge and agriculture
over the past decade (Fischer, et al., 2002; Darwin, 2004; Lobell, et al.,
2008; Nelson, et al. 2009). Climate change is expected to influence crop
production, hydrologic balances, input supplies and other components of
agricultural systems. However, the changes occur due to variation in different
climatic parameters such as cloud cover, precipitation, temperature and
increase in Green House Gases (GHG's) emission through human activities.
Adverse impacts of climate change in Nigeria include frequent drought,
increased rural-urban migration, increased biodiversity loss, depletion of wild
and other natural resource base, changes in vegetation types, increased health
risk and the spread of infectious diseases and changing livelihood systems
(Abaje and Giwa, 2007; Hassan and Nhemachena, 2008).
Of Nigeria's 923,768km2 land size, 34%
is occupied by crops, 23% by grassland and 16% by forests, approximately 13% is
rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and the remaining 14% fall under other uses
according to Ajayi (2009). Also, small scale farm holdings predominate in
Nigeria, accounting for about 94% of the agricultural output (Ajayi, 2009).
Agriculture employs over 70% of the population, contributes about 41% of GDP,
accounts for 5% total export and provides 88% of non-oil earnings. Besides,
almost all sectors of agriculture which are crop production, livestock farming,
pastoralism, fishery etc. depend on climate whose variability have meant that
local farmers who implement their regular annual farm business plans risk total
failure due to climate change effects (Ozor et al, 2010). The conditions
emanating from climate change are bound to compromise agricultural productions
(crop, livestock, forest and fishery resources), nutritional and health
statuses, trading in agricultural commodities, human settlements especially of
agricultural communities, tourism and recreation among others (Tologbonse, et
al. 2010) Nigeria like all the countries of sub-Saharan Africa is highly
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (IPCC, 2007). Despite the fact that
efforts have been made towards fighting climate change from scientific views,
research and policies directed towards indigenous knowledge and perception are
highly needed. Understanding of local perception is useful in assessing the
true implications of changing climate. Therefore there is the need to gain as
much information as possible, and learn the positions of rural farmers and
their needs, about what they know about climate change, in order to offer
adaptation practices that meet these needs.
Climate change is a major challenge to
agricultural development in Africa and the world at large. Ziervogel, et al.
2006 noted that climate change, which is attributable to natural climate cycle
and human activities, has adversely affected agricultural productivity in Africa,
making Agriculture one of the sectors most vulnerable to climate change impact
in Africa, as observed by Falaki et al 2013, the impact of climate is more
where agriculture is rain fed and essential for the daily existence such in
Nigeria.Zoellick 2009 stated that, as the planet warms, rainfall patterns
shift, and extreme events such as drought, floods and forest fires become more
frequent. This results in poor and unpredictable yields, thereby making farmers
more vulnerable, particularly in Africa (UNFCCC, 2007). Across Nigeria,
millions of people are already experiencing changing seasonal patterns of
rainfall and increased heat. Climate therefore determines to a large extent
availability of water which impacts health and ultimately the level of poverty among
Nigerians. Agriculture places heavy burden on the environment in the process of
providing humanity with food and fiber while climate is the primary determinant
of agricultural productivity. Given the fundamental role of agriculture in
human welfare, concern has been expressed by federal agencies and others
regarding the potential effects of climate change on agricultural
productivity.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Climate change is a serious challenge
to socio economic developments even in the developed countries of the world. In
Nigeria and other parts of Africa, agriculture occupies a critical position
particularly in food production and generation of employment. A significant
proportion of actors in the agricultural sectors are however, likely to have
little or no idea about climate change because of their level of awareness Thus
although they suffer more of the impact of climate change, they probably do not
know the depth of what is happening to the system. There is therefore a need to
gain an understanding of farmers’ perception of climate change so that they can
be appropriately targeted in climate change response actions.
Human perception of environmental
issues have been broadly categorized as cognitive (related to knowledge and
understanding), affective (related to feelings, attitudes and emotions),
behavioural (related to changes in behaviour of the viewer) and physiological
(biological or physical effects on the observer's body) Zube, et al, 1982.
However, perception decides over
resource allocation, without perceiving the risk adequately all other
determents seem meaningless. The effects of climate change leads to land
degradation which reduces the quality and productivity and manifest throughout
the country while in the southern part of Nigeria, the problem is coastal
erosion and flooding, in the Sahelian zone of north, the most pronounced
climate changed related reforms of land degradation are wind erosion and
related sand dune formation, drought and desertification, sheet erosion which
results to the complete removal of arable land is Nigeria's biggest threat to
agriculture especially in the sandy soils regions of south-eastern Nigeria.
Perception determines the social mental
picture of climate change. But a number of other variables like
socio-demographic and socio-economic factors or ideological orientations,
awareness level, information source influence perception and the mental picture
of climate change (Sjoberg, 1995; Stedman, 2004). But the extent to which these
factors influence perception of climate change particularly among local farmers
have not received adequate attention in the literature and thus remains a
subject of research focus.
Fundamentally, the location, size and
characteristic relief of Nigeria give rise to a variety of climates ranging
from tropical rainforest climate along the coast to the Sahel climate in the
Northern part of the country, each being different in its annual precipitation,
sunshine and other climate elements (Adejuwom, 2004). In spite of this Nigeria
is yet to put in place an agency that would negotiate and co-ordinate the
nation’s climate change activities (Agwu, et al., 2011). Farmers in
trying to come to terms with climate change have developed strategies for
adaptation and mitigation of its effects. Some of these measures include cover
cropping, early planting, prompt weeding, regulated use of agro-chemicals and
use of tolerant varieties (DelPHE, 2010). However, previous adaptive measures
used by farmers become rapidly obsolete and ineffective due to the pace at
which adverse climate events take place (Eneteet al., 2011). Action Aid
(2008) reports that farmers in the Southeastern part of Nigeria have continued to
complain of reduction in farm output arising from the uncertainty of rainfall
patterns, increased erosion resulting from heavy down pour which simultaneously
destroy the fertility and at times washing away of plants and human
settlements. The unfortunate aspect of the climate change dilemma in Nigeria is
that most of the farmers do not understand or appreciate their contributions to
climate change devastations. This is more so among rural farmers who still
engage in traditional forms of slash and burn system of farming (Agwuet al.,
2011). Evidence abounds in climate change literature that farmers are aware
that the climate has changed and that this change has affected negatively their
output (Eneteet al., 2011) but what they do not seem to appreciate is how
their farming activities drive climate change. It is, therefore, important to
investigate how farmers, who are major environmental stakeholders, perceive the
issue of climate change, what types of changes they have observed in the past
and how they have coped with them. Answers to these and other several related
questions constitute the purpose of this study.
1.3 Aim and Objectives of the study
Aim of the Study
The aim of this study is to assess the
perception of local farmers on climate change
The specific objectives are to:
1. Examine farmers’
level of knowledge about climate change and possible actions taken.
2. Analyse farmers’
sources of information about climate change.
3. Analyse farmers’
perception about the effects of climate change in the study area.
4. Examine the coping strategies adopted by farmers.
5. Examine government actions in alleviating the effects of
climate change
1.4 Research Questions
1. What level of knowledge do local farmers have about climate
change and what actions do they take?
2. What are their sources of information about climate
change?
3. What is their perception about the effects of climate
change?
4. What are the coping strategies adopted?
5. What actions can government take to alleviate the
problems of climate change?
1.5 Hypothesis
1. Farmer’s
knowledge of climate change varies significantly in the study area.
2. There is a significant variation in farmer’s sources of
information on climate change.
3. Farmers perception of climate change varies significantly
in the study area.
4. There is a
significant variation in climate change coping strategies adopted by farmers
1.6 Significance of the study
The study will go a long way in helping
Farmers in the study area to adjust to the changing climate trend. This will
help save their means of livelihood, as addressing the climate change issues
observed in the study will significantly help famers remain in business.
1.7 Study Area
Ido is a Local Government Area in oyo
State, Nigeria. Its headquarters are in the town of Ido, it is situated along
Ibadan-Eruwa road. It is located between Latitude 6' 45' and 9' 45' North of
the Equator and Longitude 2' 30' and 9' 45' East of Greenwich Meridian. The
Local Government was created during the second republic on May 29, 1989 and it
shares boundary with Oluyole Local Government, Ibarapa East Local Government,
Akinyele Local Government, Ibadan North West Local Government, Ibadan South
West Local Government, Ibadan North Local Government areas of Oyo state and
Odeda Local Government in Ogun state. It was among the five in Ibadan district
before it was cancelled in 1956, other four local Governments that were in
existence at that time were Mapo, Akinyele, Ona-ara, and Olode-Olojumo.
It has an area of 986km2 and
a population of 103,261 using a growth rate of 3.2% from 2006 census, it has
population density of 116 persons by square kilometer. Like most cities in
Southern Nigeria, Ido is characterized by two distinct seasons: the dry and the
rainy season. It enjoys abundant rainfall of over 1800mm annually and the
south-westerly winds blow most of the year.
The people are predominantly Yorubas
and the area is blessed with fertile land, which is suitable for agriculture.
The main occupation of the people is farming mainly food and cash crops such as
cassava, maize, yam, vegetable, timber, cocoa, oil palm and kolanut, there are
also large hectares of grassland which are suitable for animal rearing, vast
forest reserves and rivers. The Local Government is a block under the
Ibadan/Ibarapa agricultural zone of the Oyo state Agricultural Programme
(OYSADEP). The people of Ido are mainly small scale farmers with significant
proportion of the farmers engaging in secondary occupation such as hunting,
trading, artisan, civil service jobs, food processing. There are also some
industries located within the Local Government Area,these include the Nigerian
National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Nigeria Wire and Cable, Nigeria Mining
Corporation and Cassava Processing Industry. The Local Government area has 75 primary
schools, 33 secondary schools made up of 18 junior secondary school and 15
senior secondary school.
Fig.1.1
Ido Local Government Area showing the Wards
References
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Agoumi,
A. (2003). Vulnerability of North African Countries to Climate Changes:
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Network, 14pp.